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Follow an Oracle At Your Own Peril

According to Newsweek, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin “has a somewhat oracular reputation.” Oracular – in this context, means that you have to sit up straight and listen closely to what Rubin has to say.

Since 2000, he has predicted a massive oil-price spike, and he was among the first in 2007 to prophesy that oil would soar over $100 per barrel (a few months later, he said $150 a barrel and was basically proved right again). Now, even though oil has dropped considerably from its peak, Rubin warns that it’s bound to skyrocket once more and cause another, even greater economic crisis.

Elaine Garzarelli predicted the crash in ’87 and was touted as a guru. She hasn’t predicted much since, and when she did, she was wrong.

Marty Zweig made such predictions about the ’87 crash also. He was a bear throughout the raging bull market of the 90s as the market was going parabolic. In fairness, he got ripped off. He wasn’t right even under the “broken clock is right twice a day” manner.

Warren Buffett can’t trade to save his ass, but he’s sure as hell rich – and oracular. Luck has been his dance partner more times than his prescience, yet everyone still wants to believe there is a guru. He’s lost on currency, commodity, and stock index trades. He talks out of both sides of his mouth about OTC derivatives, yet the “faithful” only hear what they want to hear.

Which brings me back to Rubin. If you’re of the faithful in this case, trade with protective stops. Be proactive and trade in and out of risk. Don’t let some alleged oracle’s headlines or sound bites determine your risk management system.

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  • I COULD NOT AGREE MORE. I THINK MOST OF THESE PREDICTOR TYPES GOT RECOGNITION VIA THE SURVIVORSHIP BIAS.

    ALSO THEY DRAW ATTENTION BY MAKING A HUNDRED PREDICTIONS THEN REMIND YOU OF THE FEW THAT WORKED OUT (THE JIM CRAMER TYPES)

    DO YOUR OWN THINKING, MANAGE YOUR EXPOSURES AND EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

  • I COULD NOT AGREE MORE. I THINK MOST OF THESE PREDICTOR TYPES GOT RECOGNITION VIA THE SURVIVORSHIP BIAS.

    ALSO THEY DRAW ATTENTION BY MAKING A HUNDRED PREDICTIONS THEN REMIND YOU OF THE FEW THAT WORKED OUT (THE JIM CRAMER TYPES)

    DO YOUR OWN THINKING, MANAGE YOUR EXPOSURES AND EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED