Archive for December, 2010
I just almost spit out my dinner after reading this headline at Yahoo!:
“US gas demand should fall for good after ’06 peak.”
It’s amazing how people love to predict things. It’s a pastime unto itself. Here’s how the article starts:
“After seven decades of mostly uninterrupted growth, U.S. gasoline demand is at the start of a long-term decline. By 2030, Americans will burn at least 20 percent less gasoline than today, experts say, even as millions of more cars clog the roads.
By 2030? That’s great…only 20 years from now. If you believe it…The main currency for a fundamental analyst are their predictions and opinions. And they ain’t worth much.
Want to know how hard it is to predict? Look back over the last 20 years and see how not only how much things change, but how unexpectedly things change. That will take you back to 1990. Have fun.Read More
Victor Sperandeo has penned an editorial in today’s Barrons, “Lessons From History: When Governments Cannot Borrow, Hyperinflation Is Frequently The Result.”
Here’s an excerpt:
Without the support of foreign buyers, government spending will have to be paid with newly printed money, and the inflation consequences will be dire. Historically, nations default when the bulk of the debt is owed to other nations, but the U.S. still owes most of its debt to its own citizens.
Gold trading at more than $1,350 an ounce, despite no appreciable increase in the consumer price index, is much more understandable when you realize that in periods of hyperinflation, gold tends to appreciate by 2,000% to 50,000% against a hyperinflated currency.
Do the gold bugs know something we don’t? In time, the markets will surely say whether this is so. But unless drastic measures are taken to change the trend of deficits, or unless purchasers of U.S. government debt ignore all rational measures of risk, a psychological breaking point is approaching. When this happens, history tells us that hyperinflation is not far behind.Read More
Thanks for all the feedback on the Journaling. The most important thing you can do for yourself is learn about yourself.
You can get a free download for RedNotebook journaling software if you’d prefer to journal in your computer instead of handwriting. I prefer the latter, so I don’t use it and cannot comment on it. Plus, I do all my writing on a Mac and this is for PC.
The software is free too, not just the download.Read More