The Cost of Having Community

Dynamic Hedge has missed the whole point about StockTwits in the author’s recent blog post Cost of Free in the Financial Web.

The “population of novice observers and would-be pundits” along with the pros et al. create a valuable community where everyone is an equal. That to me is what seems to be the biggest asset of StockTwits – more than the Tweets themselves. It’s the idea of sharing and being part of something bigger than the individual.

There’s no room for ego or “I’m a pro and StockTwits is beneath me because they let amateurs contribute.” Ed Seykota said “pride is a great banana peel.” We want newcomers to air out their thoughts among professional traders. That’s how they’ll grow and become great, not become a Massengill like Brian Hunter from Amaranth or Bernie Madoff.

Some of the most insightful things I’ve learned have come from students who didn’t know their backsides from a hole in the ground, but had the guts to ask questions that were way outside the box. And those questions got me thinking. As a teacher I’m better for those questions b/c frankly, I wouldn’t have come up with them on my own. I’ve been around too long to sometimes see the simplicity in things…to my own detriment. This goes for my trading also.

Traders and traders-in-the-making are very idiosyncratic and highly independent people. It’s more valuable than not to have some type of tribe to belong to. Trading is 80% or more self-awareness and 20% “how to,” so there isn’t any “best ideas” anyway. Saying otherwise is disingenuous.

Like Dynamic Hedge, I could not care less who nailed a big trade or who made 8 great calls in a row. That’s not the point. What is the point is if one of my buddies I’ve connected with via StockTwits has gotten ripped off by an HFT and he’s frustrated, he can reach out to me for support. StockTwits provides the platform for us to connect maybe long before we actually need to.

Unlike Dynamic Hedge, I will always share my best material for free. It’s very hard to develop trust with a readership otherwise. Plus, most new traders cannot afford to pay me what I’m worth, so I figure karma-wise it will come back to me in spades from other sources – not necessarily from the students who benefit from my writing.

I can call most of the Market Wizards from the first book on a cell phone at a moments notice for advice if I need to. I reciprocate that by paying it forward on my blog with some of my best material as frequently as I possibly can. I am by far the luckiest blogger/trader out there and I know it.

I’m willing to sift through some of the grizzle in the blogosphere to find the 3 guys who can help me. That’s the cost of having StockTwits.

F*ck intellectual greed.

No Secret Why Cattle Are Stampeding

It’s not Billy Crystal’s coffee grinder that’s spooking the cattle.

CME Live Cattle

LiveCattle

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Barry Ritholtz had an interesting post on Cattle prices. Yes, beef is going to cost more, because protein is going to cost more. But not the protein you think, but yes, that protein will go up in price too. Get it? Read more…

Cattle need to be fed protein so they can be fattened up so they can, of course, be slaughtered. That protein comes from corn, wheat, or soybean meal for the most part. That’s the first “protein” above. All of these commodities trade at the CME and CBOT. You can follow the CME Group on Twitter with the @CMEGroup handle.

Each of these commodities has a percent protein by weight. The feedlotter needs to be aware of the costs of the cattle feed protein. If the grains and oilseeds have bearish supply numbers, then higher cattle prices are going to follow. That’s the case today.

If you look at prices for live cattle, soybean meal, corn, and wheat, you’ll see (in the charts below) that they’ve risen quite dramatically compared to cattle prices themselves. Since June 1, 2010 prices have risen accordingly:

Live Cattle – 15.36%
Soybean meal – 52.63%
Corn – 68.06%
Wheat – 52.11%

Corn looks to have appreciated the most, so entities that need protein will look to find a cheaper cost of protein by weight that what their afforded via corn. Remember corn and wheat trade in bushels, which is volume, not weight. Soybean meal trades in metric tons and cattle in pounds.

Some sharp pencil will figure out a model to take advantage of this, as well as how much the increase in protein from grains and oilseeds will result in an increase in live cattle or feeder cattle.

The second protein is from fish, chicken, or pork. If cattle prices rise, the substitutes might rise from all the new buying that otherwise would have purchased beef because the substitute is cheaper – pound for pound.

If feedlot protein costs rise, or are expected to rise, feedlotters can buy grains and oilseed futures to hedge their costs. If the price of their cattle rise, they may decide to hold off selling cattle futures today, in order to take advantage of higher prices in the deferred months. That can lead to a one-sided market if there are only long speculators and no commercial selling hedgers.

CBOT Soybean Meal

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CBOT Wheat

cbotwheat

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CBOT Corn

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Use Sperandeo 2B Reversal To Trade Apple on Steve Jobs News AAPL

With March Nasdaq futures down about 20 overnight, you can see that traders are figuring that the news of Steve Jobs medical leave will be adding significant downward pressure on AAPL and thus the index.

Jane Wells just sent a Tweet about analysts thinking. (She works on air at CNBC…it’s a cable tv info-tainment network.)

janewellscnbc

I’ve seen AAPL down more almost $30 intraday. If AAPL is down $20-$30 tomorrow, this poses a great opportunity to employ Victor Sperandeo’s 2B Reversal trade intraday if there is substantial weakness. If you’re not long, read the tape and wait for the intraday reversal, and then go long.

If you’re long, and you can’t take the uncertainty, you first loss is your best loss.

aapl.trend

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The long trend line runs through $330, about $18 below Friday’s close of $348. Support looks to be around $320 and then at $300. I’ll see about updating this post with an intraday chart.

Jeffrey Hirsch, Commodity & Stock Traders Almanac Podcast Review

Jeffrey Hirsch is the author of the 2011 editions of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and the Commodity Trader’s Almanac. I spoke with him last week. As a teacher, I find it hard to believe that more investors don’t learn to time the market when there is ample evidence that it is not only possible, but that the patterns have historical backing.