With the SP500 at new highs, the answer to the question “Is the market really going up?” is somewhat obvious, but is it really?
Could it be that the market is not going up, but simply repricing itself for devalued currency? (Thanks Ben!)
What if we price the SP500 in gold terms, would the market still show strength then? The answer is in the chart above, representing long SP500 position against gold, NOT USD.
Obviously this chart is NOT at new highs, nor does it show major upward momentum.
Now does that mean that the market will not go higher ? No, not by a long shot, but it does mean that if you have no edge picking those equities that can really outperform the market, in general, you might be better off riding the Gold / Silver commodity train, opposed to the equity train.